๐๐ฆ ๐๐ฆ๐ง ๐๐๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ฃ๐ฅ๐๐๐ฆ๐ง
/ Just because Coke tastes good doesn't mean you have to buy the stock
My professor explained something interesting yesterday, I need to briefly capture his words and wrap them up in a meaningful way.
๐ ) ๐ฝ๐๐๐จ๐ฅ๐๐๐ก๐ for beginners buying.
๐๐ ) ๐๐๐จ ๐จ๐ค๐ก๐ก๐ฉ๐ ๐ข๐๐ฃ ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐๐๐จ๐จ๐๐ฃ ๐๐๐๐ฟ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ฉ๐ช๐ฃ
๐๐๐) ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ฉ ๐ข๐๐๐ฃ๐๐จ ๐๐ง๐ค๐๐จ (Chair of Strategic Business Management)
tldr: skips to III)
๐) ๐๐ฒ๐ถ๐๐ฝ๐ถ๐ฒ๐น๐ฒ
"๐๐ค๐ฉ ๐ฃ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ท๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐๐ฐ๐ญ๐ข convinced ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ฌ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ถ๐ฎ๐ช๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ช๐ต ๐๐ข๐ฉ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ข๐ถ๐ค๐ฉ regular ๐๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ฌ๐ต๐ฆ, ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ด๐ธ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฉ๐ข๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐ช๐ค๐ฉ ๐ฎ๐ช๐ค๐ฉ ๐ซ๐ฆ๐ต๐ป๐ต ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ช๐ค๐ฉ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ป๐ถ ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต๐ด๐ค๐ฉ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ด๐ด๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฎ๐ช๐ณ ๐ฅ๐ช๐ฆ ๐๐ฌ๐ต๐ช๐ฆ ๐ช๐ฏ๐ด ๐๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ป๐ถ ๐ญ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐"
"๐๐ค๐ฉ ๐ง๐ข๐ฉ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ช๐ต 3 ๐๐ข๐ฉ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐๐ฆ๐ด๐ญ๐ข ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐ถ๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ณ ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ฅ๐ข๐ด ๐๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ป๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ต ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐๐ช๐ณ๐ฎ๐ข, ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ด๐ธ๐ฆ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฉ๐ข๐ฃ๐ฆ ๐ช๐ค๐ฉ ๐ฎ๐ช๐ณ ๐ฆ๐ช๐ฏ๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ด๐ต๐ฆ ๐๐ฐ๐ด๐ช๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ข๐ถ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ฃ๐ข๐ถ๐ต."
A year ago, the WAZ even said:
"๐๐๐๐๐, ๐ฅ๐ช๐ฆ ๐๐ฌ๐ต๐ช๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ก๐ถ๐ฌ๐ถ๐ฏ๐ง๐ต". Sure thing, what could happen with Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, etc.?
Information leading to purchase decisions
(based on statistical bullshit, cf. https://app.getquin.com/activity/GDlzIDdeHe ), there is apparently not only on Instagram, where you can unfortunately often read "buy stocks you know first".
(NO, if you have no idea and no interest in learning, buy ANYTHING rather leads to high losses, diversified funds or ETFs are in the long term more sensible in the case).
The average does not manage to beat the market. So if you buy shares, you want to trade above average.
If you don't have the patience for valuation and market analysis, you underestimate the average market participant, so you should better bet on funds or world ETFs.
To come back to the WAZ example: Yes, FAANG are and were "good" companies.
From custumer point of view.
BUT
๐๐ฆ ๐๐ฆ๐ง ๐๐๐๐๐ฆ ๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ฃ๐ฅ๐๐๐ฆ๐ง
! Everything that has happened, been produced, been achieved in the present, obvious future and past, has already been estimated by institutional providers and thus priced into the price!
Thus, all investment theories as in the above examples are invalid.
Also something like "Amazon has a good market position" is a pseudo argument. This is also known by those who can significantly influence the Amazon price.
๐๐) How do I know if it is not only a cool company, but also a ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ป๐๐ผ๐น๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐๐๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐?
[Well, actually everything is priced in, we don't have more informatioen than others and therefore everything is overestimation and rationally you are forced to invest passively, BUT...]
On valuation there was a good post here the other day from @TheAccountant89
https://app.getquin.com/activity/laOUVhfFDI?lang=de&utm_source=sharing
Otherwise one could at least consider the following:
- Macro development, future forecast FED, ECB and difference to the priced in
- Long-term Chart outlook
- Upcoming Annual General Meetings etc.
(In the sense @sharkace how far are you with the projections?)
๐๐๐) ๐ญ๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐บ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ณ๐
, "As an investor, you have to keep one thing in mind. A stock value is a number that reflects an entire company. It is not something as easy to understand as profit, sales or loss, which we can easily explain to ourselves logically, many more things have an impact on this number that many do not even know!
So if you think you can play in this game, don't think you will be recognized, don't even think you will be noticed! You are not a player, you are the game! And then such a small part of the game that none of the players care about their existence."
#learn
#learninvesting
#stockanalysis
https://www.commerzbank.de/portal/de/ratgeber/finanzen/aktienbewertung-so-gehen-sie-vor.html
